Difference between Cut Odd and Value Odd

Today my motto is: Separate and explain the two concepts that are totally different! The theme that I bring you today is to explain the difference between the cut odd and the value odd that you can find in your qualitative or quantitative analyzes.
Difference between Odd of Cut and Odd of value: I begin by talking about each one separately

Once and for all, we will separate concepts and we will separate words, or rather definitions, that have nothing to do with each other!

Cutting Odd

The cut odd is that odd below which we do not bet as a rule. Why? Let me explain: When you have a long record and a history of our bets, with due analysis, we can understand and come to a conclusion on how assertive we are or are not at certain odds.

To reach a cut odd, we have to have a beautiful history of bets, duly registered. For what? In order to have a proper sampling of the odd to which we must “cut” our bet.

As a thorough analysis of our record, we can see that after a certain low odd, our hits decrease. Each time we go down in the odd, our lost bets increase.

Good in practice, it means that if we enter below that odd average many times, we will have a long-term loss. Do you agree? Thus, with this type of analysis we can see that we should not explore odds below our cut-off odds.

How we got there, so to be very easy to understand, just make an average of the odd’s, and see which ones won in percentage, and in the lost the same thing. Then you can reach an average odd, which should be taken into account, like your cut odd!

The cut odds may still be used in your day-to-day betting, but you will know that they are going against your average of hits. The cut odd serves only as a filter, this is how I want you to understand it, and to serve as an “alarm” for you to realize that that analysis may have to be revised, as you are using an odd that you usually fail a lot .

He went on to say that they can use it, but if the “alarm” is already in your mind, you can quickly adjust the odd, for example, pull it to a higher Live, or even abandon the analysis. The cut odd should not be at all limiting in your bets, it will always have to serve as a reference or to alarm you, that odd, you miss and quite!

If you manage to control your cut odd, you can in practice eliminate 50% of your entries that you lose. Only this small detail can make you at the end of the year have a significant increase in your ROI.

I would say on average bettors, with average stakes, a 2% to 4% increase in ROI at the end of a betting season.

It seems little, but for me I consider it a lot, because it could be a big difference in terms of money that they managed to collect on your stalls! A percentage of these each year on the banks yields more than what banks give you today, just using banking as a comparison term.

To end the question of cut odds, it is simple, it is not a cut odd because it has no value, it is the odd that you have already bet and tend to have lost bets!

Odd of value

The value odd is the odd that we find in a differential between the odd given by the bookmaker, and our odd, given by us, now qualitatively now quantitatively. The value odd should, in my view, have a differential of at least 0.40 tick’s, something that gives us a considerable edge between our analysis and analysis of the bookmakers.

A value odd, in whatever way we find it, is an odd that we think is out of step with the odd offered to us. Our analysis, be it qualitative or quantitative, should also take into account the odd that gives us the bookmaker.

Always assume that bookmakers know, almost always more than you do. Whether they are advanced algorithms or the inside information they may have together with the clubs involved.

Having this reasoning in our analysis is half way to go around the bookmakers, and with that we can place more bets, with worthwhile odds, I would say otherwise, mismatched odds. The value odd will always be your opinion vs the opinion of bookmakers, understanding this issue is fundamental for us to be profitable in the long run.

Always working on the value odds will always be a good way to work on sports betting in the long term. Your ROI will be strengthened in this matter, the problem is to know when the houses were wrong, but that is a topic for another article for sure.

The value odd should not be compared to the cut odd, that was the theme that I brought you here today, it was for this purpose that I separated the “wheat from the chaff”. The value odds can be 1.20, 1.50 can be any odd. It is not the value odd that will be a reference for your cut odd.

Do you understand? Not?

The value odd may even be low, but it still has value in relation to bookmakers, please do not compare cut odds with the value odd. If you find an odd value below the cut-off odd, take advantage, because as a rule you are on the edge in relation to bookmakers.

The value odd is always the odd that you find, in your differential, regardless of what the odd is. The value odd does not have to be “fat”, it just has to obey the 0.40 tick differential that I mentioned above.

Odd value is something that you should always find, sometimes in pre-live or in Live. Odds mismatch and sometimes is the number 1 enemy of bookmakers.

Bookmakers, especially on Live, always have someone monitoring these situations, they know that sometimes the odds offered by them may falter, especially on Live. To be aware of this concept and use it to our advantage is to be halfway to becoming winners in this world of online betting.

So, use these two concepts, which are very different, do not be deceived by your low value, with the cut odd. Now let’s discuss the following obvious question that comes after this explanation!

What if the value odd is below the cut odd? What we do?

Well, is the answer simple?

In my view, yes! For me as a bettor I consider the value odd to be more important to me than the cut odd, not least because the cut odd is an estimate of my betting record! Being an “average” found with many values ​​to be taken into account and in a large timeframe, I have to give primacy to the odd value and not the cut odd!

I think that the value odd should always be considered and not the cutoff, for me the cutoff odd is a statistical fact of my betting record, and for me the sampling being bigger and bigger, may also increase the error factor in the analysis.

Yes, one thing and analyze 100 bets, another thing and analyze 10,000 bets. The margin of error for a statistical analysis increases considerably. For this factor, I prefer to only consider a cut odd as a statistical data and use it as any other.

I respect it, yes I confess, but in a duel between the two, I go by the odd value and not by the cut odd! For me, Value is more important than a cut-off odd that is purely pure statistics!

I hope you have managed to demystify the concept of the cut odd with the value odd, and that everyone understands their differences and how to choose in case of a duel! Always try to understand the true meaning of things, in this world, every day new names and concepts are “invented”, for something that has existed for a long time!

Always look for someone or ways to know what each expression or definition used in the world of betting is. For example, such a mess could have colossal effects on your bookmakers, ROI and your future as bettors.

Use and abuse the information that comes to you, but do yourself a favor, try to understand and verify the truth of things. Ask, try to discuss what you have understood, as you may have misunderstood.

That’s all for today, good bets and good luck, yes, it is also necessary!